Scenarios are a description of situations that could occur, a set of informed assumptions about a development that may require humanitarian action. These scenarios can support strategic planning, create awareness, provide early warning and promote preparedness activities for all groups and individuals working on the Syria crisis. The following document covers three scenarios which are likely to occur in the next six months. For every scenario a separate column indicates whether the described event is already taking place. Where possible, the current occurrence of this event is quantified. In addition, three often mentioned, but unlikely, developments are covered. Finally, several lessons learned from similar situations outside of Syria are included.